For mortgage lenders, Q4 2025 and early 2026 is signaling a dynamic shift. While no one is predicting a return to the rock-bottom mortgage rates of the past, a new pattern is emerging: “micro-windows” of refinance opportunity. To capitalize on these brief but significant surges in demand, lenders need a valuation strategy that is not just fast, but also intelligent, scalable, and precise.
The key lies in a unified approach, leveraging the powerful data analytics of Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros) alongside the modern appraisal solutions of Valligent. Together, we provide a comprehensive toolkit designed to maximize efficiency and minimize risk in the refi waves.
Market Outlook: Small Dips, Significant Opportunities
Let’s look at the numbers. Forecasters are pointing to a period of relative stability, with mortgage rates expected to hover in the low- to mid-6% range. Fannie Mae® predicts that the refinance share of mortgage originations will rise from 26% in 2025 to 35% in 2026 as rates ease [1]. This environment means that even small rate drops can trigger a flurry of activity from homeowners who secured loans at higher rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association® (MBA®) reinforces this outlook, forecasting a 9.2% increase in refinance originations in 2026, reaching $737 billion [2].
This isn’t a single tidal wave; it’s a series of swift currents. Success will be defined by your ability to process high volumes of applications with speed and accuracy, which is where a modern, tiered valuation strategy becomes essential.
A Tiered Approach for Refinance Success
By combining Veros’ powerful data and risk management tools with Valligent’s flexible valuation services, lenders can create a streamlined “waterfall” approach that matches the right valuation tool to every loan scenario.
Tier 1: Automated Triage & Risk Assessment (High-Volume, Low-Touch)
When refinance applications surge, the first step is rapid, data-driven assessment. This is where you weed out low-risk, straightforward loans that can be fast-tracked.
- What to use: Veros’ VeroVALUE AVM
- When to use: Immediately upon receiving a refinance application. This should be the default first pass for all incoming refi loans.
- Why: VeroVALUE, one of the industry’s leading Automated Valuation Models (AVMs), provides an instant, reliable property value estimate. This allows you to quickly confirm a property value.
Tier 2: Modern Valuation for the Mainstream (Medium-Risk, Efficient Detail)
For the large number of loans that require more than an AVM but don’t warrant a full traditional appraisal, modern solutions offer the perfect balance of detail and efficiency.
- What to use: Valligent’s eVAL, Virtual Valuations (ValINSPECT VIRTUAL), and Desktop Appraisals (ValPRAZE).
- When to use: For loans that have a moderate level of risk. This is your workhorse tier for the bulk of the refinance volume.
- Why: This suite of products provides a fast, cost-effective, and borrower-friendly alternative to traditional appraisals. eVAL is perfect for lower LTV refinances and HELOCs. Pairing a ValINSPECT Virtual with an AVM can give you additional property insights into property condition. Our virtual and desktop solutions can cut turn times by several days, a crucial advantage when borrowers are rate-shopping in a competitive market.
Tier 3: Precision & Compliance for Complex Cases (High-Risk, High-Touch)
Inevitably, some properties are unique, high-value, or carry a higher risk profile. These require a deeper analysis to ensure accuracy and mitigate risk.
- What to use: Valligent’s Traditional Appraisals, supported by a robust quality control framework. Adding the ValPROTECT Warranty (ValPROTECTSM) offers partial recovery of monetary loss if a property valuation is inaccurate above a designated threshold and certain policy criteria are met. ValPROTECT aims to ensure the subject property’s assessed value on the day of determination is accurate.
- When to use: For high-value loans, properties in volatile markets, or any time an AVM or desktop solution flags potential complexity or risk.
- Why: For these critical loans, a full appraisal remains the gold standard. Valligent’s nationwide network of expert appraisers delivers comprehensive reports across the U.S., even in rural and remote areas. Crucially, these appraisals are backed by a multi-step quality control and review process. This adds a powerful layer of risk management, ensuring fair lending compliance and bolstering the integrity of every valuation.
Path Forward: A Unified, Intelligent Strategy
The refinance market of late 2025 and 2026 will be won by mortgage lenders who are not just fast, but smart. By integrating Veros’ industry-leading data and analytics at the front end of your workflow and seamlessly escalating to Valligent’s modern valuation services as needed, you create a system that is efficient, scalable, and risk-aware.
Don’t just prepare for the refi waves—build the intelligent framework to ride them with confidence. Contact us today to discuss your needs and explore options.
Sources
[1] Fannie Mae, Economic and Housing Outlook, https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast
[2] Mortgage Bankers Association, Mortgage Finance Forecasts, https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-commentary
